“For Europe, the numbers support our view that the sharpest fall in production in this recession happened in Q4 11 and that the European economies are on course for positive growth rates again in Q2 12”. Danske Bank 03 February 2012
| Inflation |
UK +4.2%↑ Ireland +2.5%↓ Euro Area +3.0%↑ |
| Unemployment |
NI 6.8%↑ UK 8.4%↑ Ireland 14.3% EU 10.4%↓ |
| Employment |
NI 67.5%↓ UK 70.3%↔ EU-27 64.6%↑ |
| Key interest rates |
UK BoE 0.5% Euro ECB 1.00% US Fed 0.25% |
| Equity markets |
FTSE100 5796 / Dow Jones 12,705 [15.00 03.02.12] |
| Currency markets |
£/€ = 1.2023 (83.17p) £/$ = 1.5805 (63.27p) [15.00 03.02.12] |
| Commodities |
Brent Crude Oil $111.4 Forex Gold $1723 [15.00 03.02.12] |
Northern Ireland:
Local exports: TotalMobile in Antrim has won new export business in the Netherlands. The company has signed a deal with Aenova BV, a leading software company based in Delft. Aenova will integrate TotalMobile’s software within its solutions and also market it as a stand-alone product and market it to existing and new customers. The partnerships will also allow TotalMobile to target new opportunities in Healthcare.
Republic of Ireland:
The service sector in the Republic of Ireland shrank marginally in January. The PMI recorded a fall from 48.4 to 48.3. On the upside, new export orders rose, with this index climbing to 52.8 from 52.1.
United Kingdom
Service PMIs: Purchasing Manager Indices in the UK rose in January from 54 to 56 – indicating a solid expansion in the services sector. This is the fastest expansion for 10 months.
Consumer Confidence: Despite a contraction in GDP during Q4 and the threatening fall into a technical recession, consumer sentiment has improved slightly with falling energy costs and falling inflation attributed as the main reasons. The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK increased four points during January to -29.
Consumer Lending: According to the Bank of England, total lending to individuals rose by £0.4 billion in December, less than the previous six month average of £0.9 billion. Lending secured on dwellings rose by £0.7 billion, slightly higher than the previous six month average of £0.6billion.
Europe:
Markit’s Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rose in January to 50.4 from 48.3 in December. The expansion suggests that the European contraction may be short-lived.
Retail Sales: Sales in the Eurozone retail sector fell in December. Sales dropped 0.4 percent over the month and 1.6 percent over the year.
EU Unemployment: Although German unemployment fell to 6.7 percent in January, the variation in unemployment rates within the Eurozone remains very high. Spanish unemployment is sitting at 22.9 percent and in Italy the figure is 8.9 percent. Across the EU the unemployment level is now 10.4 percent.
EU Sovereign Debt: Last week European leaders were told in Davos to solve their debt crisis. Failure to do so would have significant spillover effects warned the IMF and Central Banks from non-European countries.
US:
Labour Market: strong employment data in the month of January combined with falling unemployment claimants worked to support US stock markets at the end of last week. The US economy created 243,000 jobs in the month of January. The unemployment level in the US is now 8.3 percent.
Private Demand: As jobs are being created in the US spending levels are lifting and the official data is now showing that Core Personal Consumption Expenditure levels have risen by 2.4 percent year on year in December. Personal incomes in the US rose 0.5 percent in the same month.
Angela McGowan
Chief Economist
Northern Bank
06 February 2012